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2018年04月24日 06:55:58
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盐城第一医院治疗妇科多少钱Finance and economics财经商业Buttonwood金融市场Where theres money, theres risk哪里有货币,哪里就有风险Events in America show that no asset is copper-bottomed在美国发生的事情显示出没有资产是毫无风险的。A GOVERNMENT with debt denominated in its own currency need never default, or so the theory goes.一个拥有以本币为计量单位的债务的政府需要的是永不违约,大概这个理论是可以实现的。It can simply print more money to pay off the debt.它能简单地印刷更多的货币来付它的债务。In practice, however, countries do default on local-currency debt: six have done so in the past 15 years, including Jamaica, Russia and Ecuador.但是实际上,国家不履行本国货币债务:在过去十五年已经有六个国家这样做了,包括牙买加,俄罗斯和厄瓜多尔。Before this weeks budget deal, markets had feared that America could join the list, if only in a technical sense.在本周的预算计划前,市场已经担心美国会加入这个名单,但愿在技术层面上。From the point of view of a creditor, however, the ability of a government to print money is of little comfort if the result is higher inflation or currency depreciation.然而,从一个债权人的观点来看,一个政府的印钞能力是没有用的,如果结果是对国内投资者更高的通货膨胀率或者对国外投资者的货币贬值。Investors who bought Treasury bonds in 1946, when yields were around current levels, did not suffer a formal default.在1946年国库券年收益率与现在的水平差不多的时候,购买它的投资者没有遭受正式违约。But over the following 35 years they lost money in real terms at a rate of 2% a year.但是在后续的三十五年他们以每年2%的利率实际上亏钱。The cumulative real loss was 91%.累积的实际损失是91%。By that standard, Greek creditors, who recently suffered a 50% loss via default, were lucky.跟据这个标准,最近因为违约损失50%的希腊债权人是幸运的。Given this baleful history, the idea that sovereign debt is risk-free is puzzling.考虑到这个可怕的历史,认为政府债务无风险的观点是令人费解的。When it comes to the purchasing power of an investors money, what does it matter if the loss comes in the form of a formal default or erosion in real terms?那么当提到投资者资金实际购买力时,如果损失以正式违约或者实际侵蚀的形式发生时,这有什么差别呢?The answer to that conundrum may be that default happens suddenly, whereas inflation and depreciation are slower, giving investors more time to adjust by demanding higher interest rates to compensate for their losses.对于这个难题的可能是违约突然发生,然而通货膨胀和货币贬值是缓慢的,这给了投资者更多的时间去调整,通过要求更高的利率去赔偿他们的损失。This is particularly true in the case of short-term debt, such as Treasury bills; inflation is unlikely to do serious damage to a portfolio in the course of a few months.这个在短期债务中更有现实意义,如国库券;通货膨胀极少有可能在几个月的过程中对投资组合产生严重的损害。Twenty years ago there was much talk of bond vigilantes who would respond to irresponsible fiscal policies by forcing up the interest rates on government debt.二十年前,有许多关于通过抛售国库券来要求更高年收益和约束美国政策制定者的国际投资者的事迹,他们通过迫使提高政府债务利率来应对不负责任的财政政策。With the bond vigilantes on the prowl, any short-term real loss suffered by investors would be recouped in the form of higher real rates as the governments debt was refinanced.随着他们伺机而动,投资者遭受的任何短期实际损失会由于政府债务再筹资而以较高的实际利率的形式收回来。But by buying bonds in the name of quantitative easing, central banks are influencing interest rates of all maturities these days.通过以量化宽松的名义购买债券,中央这些日子在影响所有的到期利率。By holding down bond yields, the authorities are employing a policy some have dubbed financial repression, in which real returns on government debt are reduced.通过压制住债券的年收益率,管理者运用一项政策引入金融抑制,由此政府债务的实际回报减少了。The idea is to make investors buy riskier assets, such as equities and corporate bonds.这个构想是让投资者购买有风险的资产,例如股票和公司债券。In effect, the bond vigilantes have been neutered.实际上,债券市场秩序维护者们保持了中立。One way of protecting the real value of investors bond holdings is to buy inflation-linked debt.保护投资者持有的债券实际价值的方法之一是购买通胀挂钩债券。The repayment value and interest payments on such bonds are normally tied to a well-known inflation index.关于这类债券的回报价值和利息付一般地说是与一个著名的通货膨胀指数相联系的。But even these bonds may not be completely risk-free; it is possible to imagine that future governments may find ways to redefine the inflation measure for their own benefit.但是即使是这些债券也不是完全无风险的;很有可能可以这样想象未来政府可能为了他们自己的利益找到方法去重新定义通货膨胀措施。And foreign buyers of inflation-linked bonds are still at risk from currency depreciation.并且通胀挂钩债券的外国购买者仍然面临来自货币贬值的风险。Inflation-linked bonds are extremely attractive to pension funds, since they are a neat match for the funds liabilities.由于通胀挂钩债券与养老基金的责任非常匹配,它们对养老基金来说非常有吸引力。So such bonds are snapped up quickly and tend to trade on low real yields; sometimes, those yields are even negative.所以这些债券很快被抢购一空并且有不正当利用低实际收益率的趋势;有些时候,这些获益率甚至是消极的。An asset is hardly risk-free if it guarantees a real loss.一个资产很难无风险如果它保实际损失。The concept of a risk-free asset is quite useful in finance.无风险资产的概念在金融上是非常有用的。For a start, it provides the base from which other assets can be priced.首先,它提供了其他资产的定价基准。Corporate borrowers pay an interest premium over the risk-free rate; equities have offered a higher long-term return than government bonds to reflect their higher risk.公司融资者在无风险率上付利息费用;股票提供一个比政府债券更能反映他们的高风险的长期回报。But what is the true risk-free rate?但是什么是真正的无风险率呢?Multinational companies can borrow at a lower rate of interest than some governments: compare Apple with Greece, for example.跨国公司可以以比一些政府更低的利率借款:例如,比较苹果公司和希腊。And although America is the worlds biggest economy, its government does not borrow at the cheapest rate on the planet:尽管美国是世界上最大的经济体,它的政府并不以这个星球上最便宜的利率借钱;Japanese yields have been lower for many years and German long-term yields are now significantly below those of Treasuries.日本的年收益率已经愈来愈低很多年了而且德国长期年收益率现在很明显的比国库券低。Where America does have a substantial advantage is that it borrows in the worlds reserve currency—the dollar—and that its debt market is by far the most liquid.美国实质上占优势的地方是它借的是世界储备货币并且它的债券市场是目前流动性最好的。The result is that Treasury bills, in particular, play a vital role in the system as cash equivalents and as collateral for short-term loans and derivative contracts.这样的结果是,尤其是,国库券作为现金等价物和作为短期贷款和衍生品合同作的担保物在这个系统里起了一个至关重要的作用。Treasury bills are seen as risk-free in this context in that they are instantly and universally acceptable to all participants in the system.国库券因为它们对这个系统里所有参与者迅速和广泛的接受而在这个环境里被看为是无风险的。They are the oil that lubricates the global machinery of finance.他们是润滑全球金融机器的油。That was the real risk of the latest stand-off: not that America would not pay its bills, which it could easily afford to, but that the system would grind to a halt.这个才是最新平衡的真正风险:不是美国不付它自己很容易付的账,而是这个系统会慢慢停滞下来。 /201312/270431盐城协和妇科医院彩超怎么样好不好盐城市盐都区中西医结合医院治疗盆腔炎多少钱

江苏盐城市治疗不孕不育哪家医院最好的盐城阳痿哪家治疗好Science and technology科学技术The science of justice司法的学问I think its time we broke for lunch…该吃午餐了Court rulings depend partly on when the judge last had a snack法庭判决结果一定程度上取决于法官上一次吃点心的时间AROUND the world, courthouses are adorned with a statue of a blindfolded woman holding a set of scales and a sword:世界各地的法院都装饰有一尊女子的雕像,这个女人被蒙住双眼,手持一架天平和一把剑。Justice personified.她是正义的化身。Her sword stands for the power of the court, her scales for the competing claims of the petitioners.剑代表着法庭的权力,而天平代表着上诉人的竞争性权利主张。The blindfold represents the principle that justice should be blind.眼罩代表着司法的盲目性原则。The law should be applied without fear or favour, with only cold reason and the facts of the case determining what happens to the accused.也就是说应用法律应该毫无畏惧和偏袒之心,只有冷静的推理和案件事实才能决定如何处理被告。Lawyers, though, have long suspected that such lofty ideals are not always achieved in practice, even in well run judicial systems free from political meddling.然而,律师们一直以来都怀疑在实践中这种崇高的理想是否总能实现,就连在那些不受政治干涉、运转良好的司法体系里都是如此。Justice, say the cynics, is what the judge had for breakfast. Now they have proof.犬儒主义者说:司法就是法官的早餐。而且现在他们有了据。A paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences describes how Shai Danziger of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev and his colleagues followed eight Israeli judges for ten months as they ruled on over 1,000 applications made by prisoners to parole boards.美国国家科学院学报一篇文章描述了内盖夫本-古里安大学的舍夷?丹齐格和他的几个同事追踪8位以色列法官10个月的事情,在这10个月里法官们裁判了囚犯向假释裁决委员会提出的1000多分申请。The plaintiffs were asking either to be allowed out on parole or to have the conditions of their incarceration changed.申请人要么请求准许假释要么请求改善狱中居住条件。The team found that, at the start of the day, the judges granted around two-thirds of the applications before them.调查小队发现,早晨法官所阅申请的约2/3得到了批准。As the hours passed, that number fell sharply, eventually reaching zero.而随着中午的临近,批准的数量急剧减少,最终接近于0。But clemency returned after each of two daily breaks, during which the judges retired for food.但是在每天的两餐休息时间过后,仁慈又重新降临。The approval rate shot back up to near its original value, before falling again as the day wore on.批准率回到了接近于早晨的水平,并随着时间的消逝再次下跌。To be sure, mealtimes were not the only thing that predicted the outcome of the rulings.当然,用餐时间并非预测判决结果的唯一因素。Offenders who appeared prone to recidivism were more likely to be turned down, as were those who were not in a rehabilitation programme.那些看起来容易再犯的犯人更可能被拒,那些没有参与罪犯改過自新项目的也是一样。Happily, neither the sex nor the ethnicity of the prisoners seemed to matter to the judges.而令人高兴的是,据一个司法专家组成的独立小组评定,Nor did the length of time the offenders had aly spent in prison, nor even the severity of their crimes.法官似乎不考虑罪犯的性别、种族、入狱时间长短甚至是他们罪行的严重程度。But after controlling for recidivism and rehabilitation programmes, the meal-related pattern remained.剔除了累犯和改过自新计划这些因素之后,与就餐相关的模式依然存在。The researchers offer two hypotheses for this rise in grumpiness.研究人员就这种暴躁情绪的产生给出了两种假设。One is that blood-sugar level is the crucial variable.其一是血糖浓度是关键的变量,This, though, predicts that the precise amount of time since the judge last ate will be what matters.可是这样就有人会猜测距法官上一次用餐的准确时间是重要的因素。In fact, it is the number of cases he has heard since his last break, not the number of hours he has been sitting, which best matches the data.而事实上,与调查数据最匹配的不是法官坐在那儿工作的时间长短,而是他上一次休息用餐后所审理的案件数量。That is consistent with a second theory, familiar from other studies, that decision making is mentally taxing and that,这就和第二种假设一致起来,即决策是一项耗费心神的劳动,if forced to keep deciding things, people get tired and start looking for easy answers.如果人们被迫一直做决定,那他们会变得疲惫而开始寻找简单的解决办法,这是其他研究也得出的结论。In this case, the easy answer is to maintain the status quo by denying the prisoners request.既然如此,那简单的解决办法就是拒绝犯人的申请,维持现状。Two further findings buttress the idea that it is the psychological load of decision making which matters.还有另外两个发现可以持这种精神负担作用的观点。First, the average unfavourable decision took less time to arrive at than the average favourable one.首先,通常作不利的决定比作有利的决定花费的时间短,前者约为5.2分钟,后者约为7.4分钟。Second, it also took more time to explain.其次,后者所花费的解释时间也更长。Written verdicts in favourable rulings averaged 90 words, compared with just 47 for unfavourable ones.有利决定的书面判决通常有90个单词,而不利判决书只有47个单词。In truth, these results, though disturbing, are unsurprising.事实上,尽管这些调查结果令人不安,却是意料之中的事。Judges may be trained to confine themselves to the legally relevant facts before them.法官接受的训练是将自己限制在面前的法律事实范围内。But they are also human,但他们也是凡人,and thus subject to all sorts of cognitive biases which can muddy their judgment.因而也会让各种认知偏见模糊了他们的判断力。Other fields are familiar with human imperfectibility, and take steps to ameliorate it.人性的弱点在其他领域也很常见,人们会采取措施改进这一点。Pilots, for instance, are given checklists to follow, partly in order to combat the effects of fatigue.例如飞行员需要遵循一些清单,其部分原因是为了抵抗疲劳。Lorry drivers in the European Union are not allowed to drive for more than four and a half hours without taking a break.欧盟也不允许卡车司机连续驾驶4.5小时以上。Dr Danzigers co-author, Jonathan Levav of Columbia University in New York, wonders whether the law should consider similar arrangements.丹齐格教授的合著者哥伦比亚大学的乔奈森·勒瓦夫设想司法界是否也能考虑作类似的安排。Some, of course, aly do.当然,有些地方已经这样做了。English judges, legendary for their prandial proclivities, are way ahead of him.英国的法官早就想到了这点,所以他们因爱好吃饭而闻名。 /201308/250744A Rose By Any Other Name玫瑰不叫玫瑰Just saying the word “rose” conjures up images of romance, secret admirers, Valentines gifts, and bridal bouquets.“玫瑰”很容易让人联想到浪漫的场景,神秘的爱慕者,情人节的礼物和结婚的花束。Romantics imagine soft, red petals and long, graceful stems, but practical gardeners know all about painful, pointy thorns.浪漫的人会想象出柔软的、红色的花瓣和修长的,优雅的花茎,但是实际上园丁们才知道那些尖锐的刺带来的痛楚。As the saying goes, every rose has its thorn.常言道,每朵玫瑰都有刺。But, what we call thorns are actually not thorns at all.但是,我们所说的这种刺其实根本就不是刺。Thorns, like those found on the Hawthorn tree, are modified branches that project from the stem and branches of a woody plant.刺,例如山楂树上的刺,实际上是一种改良的分枝,它会从木本植物的茎和分枝中生长出来。They are very sharp and quite strong because they are made of the same stuff as the stem of the tree or bush.它们非常锋利并且相当坚硬,因为它们的质地与灌木或树的茎是一样的。Thorns are deeply embedded in the woody structure of the plant and cant be broken off easily.这些刺都深深地嵌在植物的木纹状组织结构内,不会被轻易破坏。Those nasty points on the stem of the rose are not true thorns: they are what scientists call “prickles.”这些令人讨厌的长在玫瑰茎上的刺其实并不是真正的刺,科学家们称它们为“皮刺”。Prickles are smaller than thorns: they are sharp outgrowths of the plants outer layers, the skin-like epidermis, and the sub-epidermal layer just beneath it.皮刺比刺要小了许多:它们是这些植物外层的附属物,看上去像皮肤的表皮,其下还有亚表皮层。Unlike a thorn, a prickle can be easily broken off the plant because it is really a feature of the outer layers rather than part of the wood, like a thorn.不像刺,皮刺能够被轻易地从植物茎上剥落,因为它仅仅是植物外层的一种特征,而不像刺那样是茎的一部分。Both prickles and thorns protect the plant from predators, and, maybe, from lovers looking for a free bouquet.不管是刺抑或荆棘,都可以保护这些植物不被捕食者所猎食,同样,或许也能免于被那些寻找免费花束的情人所折断。But perhaps we call the rose prickles “thorns” because saying “every rose has its prickle” doesnt seem to do justice to the pain of unrequited love.但是或许,我们应该叫这些皮刺为“刺”,因为“每一朵玫瑰都有它的刺”的说法似乎对那些暗恋者所感受的痛苦来说不太公平。 /201309/257220盐城人流相关检查的费用Health reform医疗改革Mississippi spurning密西西比吐槽不断Obamacare hits trouble in the states奥巴马的医保改革在美国麻烦不小Jul 13th 2013 | JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI 2013年7月13日BARACK OBAMA’S health reform was supposed to bring universal health coverage to America on January 1st, 2014. It won’t. To understand why, consider states such as Mississippi.奥巴马的医疗改革原本预计从2014年1月1日开始实施,大范围的美国人将享受医保待遇,但事实上事与愿违。为什么?让我们以密西西比州为例一探究竟。Terry Brown, a Republican state senator there, stood before his colleagues on June 28th, as they lounged in summer poplin and seersucker. They had assembled to decide whether Mississippi would expand Medicaid, the public health program for the poor, as Obamacare urges. That day Mississippi said it would not. “I don’t want Mississippi to be a part of that train wreck,” said Mr Brown.泰瑞·布朗,是一名共和党议员,6月28日那天他带领他的同僚聚在一起,商讨密西西比是否要扩大医保范围。此举,用奥巴马的话讲,是惠及广大贫困群众的公共医疗项目。但当天密西西比就表示不会实施新医保。“我不想密西西比受到新医保的牵连而蒙受损失”布朗说。Obamacare aims to extend insurance to the poor in two main ways, both starting in 2014. First, it required states to offer Medicaid to all those with incomes of up to 138% of the federal poverty level, or ,856 for an individual. (At present Medicaid must cover only some poor people, such as pregnant women.) The federal government and the states usually share the cost of Medicaid. But Obamacare would pay for the expansion through 2016, with the feds’ share falling to 90% in 2020.奥巴马的医疗改革,旨在从2014年开始使医保覆盖到广大贫困群众,主要通过两项政策实现。政策一,对于收入不高于联邦贫困线38%的人员,或者个人收入不高于15,856美金的人员,州政府需要为他们提供医保(目前的医保只覆盖到部分贫困人群,例如怀妇女)。联邦政府和州政府一般共同提供医保资金,但是奥巴马的医保普及政策是2016年之前联邦政府会付新医保的费用,2020年付90%的费用,其余由州政府承担。Second, individuals would be able to shop for insurance on new state-based markets, called health exchanges. Those with incomes between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level would qualify for federal subsidies.政策二,今后个人可从州政府主导的医疗保险交易所购买保险。个人收入在联邦贫困标准及其4倍之间的人群才有资格申请联邦补贴。Neither provision is going as planned. Last year the Supreme Court made the Medicaid expansion optional. At least 21 states say they will opt out. Even more are refusing to set up their own exchanges, leaving the task to federal bureaucrats.不管是以上哪条新政,估计都要搁浅了。去年最高法院宣布此次医疗普及政策并非强制执行。至少有21个州宣布他们不会参与其中。甚至多数拒绝建立各自的医疗保险交易所,将这一难题留给联邦政府处理。Mississippi would seem the ideal place to cover more poor people. It is America’s poorest state and has the shortest life expectancy. Its current Medicaid programme is among America’s least generous. Mississippians devote an unusually large share of their income to health care (see chart). One resident in five is uninsured.作为美国最贫穷以及居民寿命最短的州,密西西比看上去是此次医疗改革的理想试点。它现有的医保计划位列全美最不惠民的政策之一,尽管出人意外地,它的大部分政府收入用于医保出,(见图表),但两成居民都不能享受医保。But Obamacare’s main provisions have gone nowhere in the Magnolia State. The fight over the Medicaid expansion involved hair-raising brinkmanship. Had lawmakers not voted before July 1st, the state’s entire Medicaid programme would have stopped functioning. Republicans insisted an expansion was unaffordable. State Medicaid costs would have increased by 7% from 2013 to 2022, estimates the Urban Institute, a think-tank. That is much less than the expected 30% increase in Medicaid subsidies from the central government. But the 7% rise would have been bigger than in any other state, mostly because Mississippi’s current Medicaid programme is so skimpy.但是奥巴马的医疗保障政策在马格诺利亚州却悄无声息。为了抵抗医保普及政策,反对者不惜铤而走险。要不是立法机关7月1日前没有进行投票表决,不然马格诺利亚的全部医保计划都将暂停。共和党人坚称州政府根本付不起医保普及政策。据智囊团“城市研究所”预估,若新医保从2013年开始实施,密西西比州政府因此承担的医保资金到2022年要增加7%。而中央政府的医保补贴预计要增加三成。而其他州的的资金投入增幅远远不及7%,主要是因为密西西比目前的基数太小了。The fight over the state’s exchanges was equally bareknuckle. Mississippi’s elected insurance commissioner wanted a state-based exchange. The Republican governor, Phil Bryant, wanted nothing to do with Obamacare. After a messy spat, plans for a state exchange dissolved. By default, Mississippi will have a “federally facilitated exchange”, managed by the health secretary’s deputies. So far only two insurers have made bids to sell health plans on it. Residents of 42 counties will have a choice of only one subsidised plan; 36 counties will have none. And many poor Mississippians will be ineligible for Medicaid.对于另一条医保交易政策,反对的声音同样激烈坚决。在密西西比,推举出的医保代理机构希望医保交易所是由州政府主导的。但是州长费勒·布莱恩特是共和党人,不想参与奥巴马的新医保。经过一番舌战,政府主导的医保交易计划也搁浅了。大家心照不宣,密西西比的医保交易所将由“联邦政府辅助引导”,由卫生部的副秘书长们管理。至此只有两家保险公司竞价参与医保计划。42个郡的居民将可以选择性的享受一项医疗补贴计划,也是唯一的一项;另外36个郡将不参与。另外还有许多人将无权享受医保。Stansel Harvey is the boss of the Delta Regional Medical Centre, in the heart of old cotton country. The Mississippi Delta contains some of America’s poorest counties. About 10% of Mr Harvey’s patients fail to pay their bills. The insurance expansion would have made many of them paying customers. Crucially, that new revenue would have helped offset another Obamacare change: lower payment rates to hospitals. Without new insurance revenue, Mr Harvey reckons that he may need to cut services. If other hospitals follow suit, Mississippians will have a problem. In the age of Obamacare, they may have less access to health care, not more.斯坦索尔·哈雷,是位于科顿郡中心的德尔塔医疗中心的老板。很多美国最穷的郡就位于密西西比河三角洲。在哈雷的医疗中心看病的病人中,大约一成都无法付医疗费用。医保普及后他们中的许多人将看得起病。重要的是,因此受益的医院收入将增加,这将抵消奥巴马医改带来的另外一个变化:医院的缴费率将下降。如果没有新医保带来的增收,哈雷说他可能不得不关门大吉。如果其他的医院也纷纷歇业,密西西比将面临一个新问题。奥巴马医改之下,尽管医保覆盖范围广了,但是人民可以看病的地方也少了。201307/248277江苏省盐城市协和医院割包皮多少钱

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